Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 62

Cleveland Browns 10 – Dallas Cowboys 30

(14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 34-J.Ford (94-M.Kneeland) [13-D.Overshown].

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

What Happened

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.92 EP
53% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 62, worth -3.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model