4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 32

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.43 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model