Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 5-B.Anger punts 43 yards to CLE 24, Center-44-T.Sieg. 16-J.Darden to CLE 35 for 11 yards (44-T.Sieg). PENALTY on CLE-42-T.Fields, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.00 EP
57% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model