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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 11

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.43 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP