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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 53

Buffalo Bills 31 – Arizona Cardinals 28

What Actually Happened

(5:28) 8-S.Martin punts 34 yards to ARI 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-41-R.Gilliam.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.52 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model