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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 12

Buffalo Bills 17 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 17-J.Allen up the middle to ARI 11 for 1 yard (25-Z.Collins; 7-K.White).

The Three Options

GO +3.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.17 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model