Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 74

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Buffalo Bills 17

(8:03) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to BUF 24, Center-46-A.Brewer. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 31 for 7 yards (16-M.Melton).

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 74, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model