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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 19 at the 19

Buffalo Bills 0 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model