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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 25

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.81 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 35, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model