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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 82

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(8:47) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 3-O.Beckham to BAL 24 for 6 yards (21-M.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.13 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 82, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 40, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model