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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 41

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to BAL 28 for 13 yards (21-B.Stephens).

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.19 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model