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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 89

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 5-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to BAL 36, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 36 for no gain (2-J.Williams, 31-N.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.53 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 89, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.63 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 46, worth -2.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model