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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 17 at the 49

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to KC 7, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by BAL-26-G.Stone.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.89 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model