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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 53

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to KC 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 17-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.61 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 53, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP