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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 5-T.Townsend punts 30 yards to BAL 41, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-29-L.Perine.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.65 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model