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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 13

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to BAL 13 for no gain (14-K.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.91 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 13, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model