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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 36

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32 – Philadelphia Eagles 9

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 77-J.Skule reported in as eligible. 22-C.Edmonds up the middle to PHI 34 for 2 yards (3-N.Smith; 29-A.Maddox).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +0.80 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.36 EP