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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 17

Philadelphia Eagles 9 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25

What Actually Happened

(12:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Smith (24-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.01 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model