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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 45

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 9

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 5-J.Camarda punts 35 yards to PHI 10, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.68 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model