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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 17 at the 55

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 9

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to PHI 13, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.50 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model