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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 20 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 9 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to TB 41, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-22-K.Ringo.

The Three Options

GO -3.32 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model