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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 17 at the 52

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 9

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to PHI 5, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-B.Covey MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 9.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.61 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 52, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model