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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 36

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.53 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model