4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 6

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 8-B.Maher 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 6, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP