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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 11

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 8-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.91 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 11, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model