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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 9

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 8-B.Maher 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.40 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 9, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP