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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 36

Detroit Lions 21 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 17-M.Badgley 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.94 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT +0.44 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model