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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 48

Green Bay Packers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to DAL 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.19 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 48, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model