4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 27

Dallas Cowboys 32 – Green Bay Packers 48

What Actually Happened

(:25) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep middle.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +1.76 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.82 EP