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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 59

Dallas Cowboys 16 – Green Bay Packers 41

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Tolbert.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.66 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model