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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 16

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 17-B.Aubrey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.63 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model