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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 16 at the 47

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to GB 7, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.02 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model