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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 2

Houston Texans 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 15-K.Fairbairn 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +3.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.14 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 2, worth +0.45 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP