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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 38

Cleveland Browns 14 – Houston Texans 45

What Actually Happened

(1:58) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at HOU 47 for -9 yards (93-K.Hinish).

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.80 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP