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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 44

Houston Texans 45 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.43 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP