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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 54

Cleveland Browns 14 – Houston Texans 45

What Actually Happened

(9:28) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to 85-D.Njoku.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.61 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model