4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 37

Cleveland Browns 14 – Houston Texans 38

What Actually Happened

(1:32) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at 50 for -13 yards (48-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.83 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model