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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 14 – Houston Texans 31

What Actually Happened

(4:13) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 88-H.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 48-C.Harris at CLE 36. 48-C.Harris for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model