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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 14 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to HOU 29, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.49 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 28, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP