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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 59

Houston Texans 17 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.22 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model