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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 12-B.Gillikin punts 61 yards to SEA 5, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 20 for 15 yards (84-E.Higgins; 47-E.Turner).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP