4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 72

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(8:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to ARI 20, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 26 for 6 yards (83-D.Young; 20-J.Love).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model