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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 8

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(9:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-T.McBride for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.71 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 8, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model