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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 52

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 12-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to SEA 7, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-47-E.Turner.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.86 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 52, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model