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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 90

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 4-M.Dickson punts 62 yards to ARI 28, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 39 for 11 yards (44-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.09 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 90, worth -5.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.76 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 47, worth -2.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP