Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 65

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Arizona Cardinals 13

(6:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to ARI 22, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.48 EP
64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model