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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.47 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 16, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model