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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 53

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(7:50) 6-P.Harvin punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.71 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 53, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model