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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 51

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to PIT 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.12 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model