Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 19 at the 64

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(5:40) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 22-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.88 EP
76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model